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Comrades Editorial · 12 Sep 2026 (PDF)

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In this edition

  1. Making India Resilient to Extreme Weather Events Environment & Ecology

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Environment & Ecology

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Making India Resilient to Extreme Weather Events

Source This editorial is based on “India knows where extreme weather is coming. It doesn’t know what it will cost” published in the Economic Times on 08/09/2026. The article highlights that recurring extreme weather events have transformed into severe macroeconomic risks, necessitating a paradigm shift from reactive relief to proactive adaptation, risk-sensitive planning, and layered climate-risk financing. Extreme weather is now a macroeconomic risk affecting agriculture, labour, energy, infrastructure, and government finances, alongside cascading transboundary hazards like the Nepal–Tibet glacial disaster. While India excels in weather prediction, its next challenge is estimating exposure, potential losses, who bears the costs, and financing recovery in advance. Moving beyond disaster management, India must proactively account for these economic impacts before they strike. What are the Major Extreme Weather Events Affecting India?
  • Heatwaves, Warm Nights and Humid-Heat Stress:
    • India is experiencing longer, earlier and geographically expanding heatwaves, consistent with the Ministry of Earth Sciences’ (MoES) finding that the country’s average temperature increased by approximately 0.7°C during 1901–2018, while the temperature of the year’s warmest day rose by about 0.63°C during 1986–2015.
    • Where high temperatures coincide with humidity, rising wet-bulb temperature restricts the body’s ability to cool itself through sweating, producing dangerous humid-heat stress.
    • The danger is amplified by the urban heat-island effect and warm-night anomaly, which prevent night-time physiological recovery, particularly among construction workers, street vendors and farm labourers facing prolonged occupational heat exposure.
  • Extreme Rainfall, Cloudbursts and Flash Floods:
    • Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall increasingly produces flash floods, debris flows and sudden river discharge, particularly in the Himalayas, Western Ghats and urban catchments.
    • According to MoES, the frequency of daily precipitation extremes exceeding 150 mm per day increased by nearly 75% over central India during 1950–2015.
    • The 2025 Dharali disaster in Uttarkashi illustrated how intense rainfall, sediment, steep slopes and river-channel obstruction can combine into a destructive flash-flood–debris-flow cascade.
  • Riverine and Urban Flooding:
    • Floods emerge not only from extreme rainfall but also from saturated catchments, reservoir releases, encroached floodplains and inadequate urban drainage.
    • Recent monsoon flooding in Assam, Gujarat and north India demonstrated that above-normal aggregate rainfall can coexist with highly uneven spatial distribution and destructive local flooding.
    • Cities such as Chennai, Bengaluru, Mumbai, Gurugram and Delhi face recurrent pluvial flooding (intense rainfall exceeds infiltration and drainage capacities) because wetlands, lakes and natural drainage channels have been encroached upon, while drainage systems are designed for lower historical rainfall intensities.
  • Tropical Cyclones, Storm Surges and Coastal Inundation:
    • India is exposed to cyclones originating in both the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, producing destructive winds, extreme rainfall, storm surges and saline-water intrusion.
    • Although the overall frequency of North Indian Ocean cyclones declined during 1951–2018, MoES found that post-monsoon very severe cyclonic storms increased by approximately one event per decade during 2000–2018.
      • E.g., Severe Cyclonic Storm Montha (2025) disrupted power, transport, agriculture and coastal settlements in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu.
  • Droughts, Monsoon Breaks and Agricultural Dry Spells:
    • Drought is a slow-onset extreme event arising from prolonged rainfall deficiency, high temperatures, soil-moisture depletion and excessive evapotranspiration.
    • India can experience floods and droughts in the same monsoon because rainfall is increasingly concentrated into fewer intense spells separated by longer break-monsoon periods.
    • The 2023–24 Karnataka drought, in which 223 of 236 taluks were declared drought-affected, demonstrated its multidimensional consequences, crop failure, groundwater depletion, fodder scarcity, livestock distress and rural indebtedness.
  • Thunderstorms, Lightning, Hailstorms and Dust Storms:
    • These convective extremes are short-lived but highly lethal because their localised nature makes precise forecasting and last-mile warning difficult.
    • Lightning and thunderstorms caused 1,374 deaths in 2024, making them among India’s most lethal weather hazards.
    • Hailstorms damage standing wheat, mustard, grapes, apples and horticultural crops within minutes, while squalls and dust storms disrupt aviation, electricity networks and road transport.
    • Agricultural losses are aggravated because localised hail damage may not be adequately captured by coarse assessment mechanisms, creating a protection gap in crop insurance.
  • Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, Avalanches and Extreme Snowfall:
    • Warming and changing precipitation are creating new cryospheric hazards across the Himalayan region.
    • Retreating glaciers can enlarge moraine-dammed lakes; failure caused by intense rainfall, ice avalanches or slope collapse can generate a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF).
    • The South Lhonak GLOF in Sikkim in October 2023 caused a sudden flood in the Teesta basin, damaging the Teesta-III hydropower project, bridges, roads and downstream settlements.
    • Conversely, intense western disturbances can produce extreme snowfall, avalanches and cold-wave conditions, isolating Himalayan communities and disrupting strategic roads, tourism and military logistics.
  • Rainfall-Triggered Landslides and Debris Flows:
    • Intense rainfall destabilises slopes by increasing pore-water pressure, producing landslides in the Himalayas, Western Ghats and northeastern hill states.
    • The Wayanad landslides of July 2024 followed exceptionally heavy rainfall and devastated settlements such as Mundakkai and Chooralmala, demonstrating the interaction of extreme rain with steep slopes, altered drainage and land-use change.
    • Similar risks affect Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and the Nilgiris, where road-cutting, hydropower construction and slope modification can amplify natural instability.
What Factors are Driving the Rise in Extreme Weather Events?
  • Accumulation of Greenhouse Gases and Anthropogenic Warming:
    • Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide strengthen the greenhouse effect, altering the atmospheric energy balance and increasing the probability of temperature and rainfall extremes.
    • India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC estimated national emissions, excluding LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry), at 2,959 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 2020.
    • However, Indian extremes are driven by the accumulated stock of global historical emissions, not India’s emissions alone.
      • This phenomenon is described as climate loading, whereby natural events occur against a warmer baseline and consequently produce greater intensity and impact.
  • Rapid Warming of the Indian Ocean:
    • The Indian Ocean acts as India’s principal heat and moisture reservoir; rising sea-surface temperatures supply additional energy to cyclones, monsoon depressions and coastal rainfall systems.
    • Marine heatwaves increase evaporation and atmospheric moisture, favouring rapid cyclone intensification, deep convection and extreme precipitation.
    • An INCOIS assessment found that during 2016–July 2024, the Arabian Sea experienced approximately 40 “Watch” days (0.5°C above normal) annually, including around 20 “Alert” days (at least 1°C above normal) with sea-surface temperatures being above normal.
  • ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and Intraseasonal Oscillations:
    • India’s weather is strongly influenced by interacting ocean–atmosphere phenomena operating over different timescales.
    • El Niño weakens the monsoon by disrupting the Walker Circulation. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its northward-moving summer mode, Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO), organise monsoon active–break cycles. Their favourable convective phases helped concentrate exceptional rainfall during the 2018 Kerala floods.
  • Himalayan Warming and Cryospheric Instability:
    • The Himalayas experience elevation-dependent warming, under which high-altitude areas may warm faster than adjoining lowlands. E.g., black-carbon deposition on Himalayan snow reduces surface reflectivity or albedo, accelerating snow and ice melt.
    • Rising temperatures alter the balance between snow and rain, accelerate glacier retreat and permafrost thaw, and weaken the ice or frozen sediment that binds mountain slopes.
    • These processes generate a cryosphere–hydrology feedback, in which warming affects glaciers, river flows, slope stability and downstream infrastructure simultaneously.
  • Deforestation, Slope Modification and Ecosystem Degradation:
    • Removal of vegetation reduces rainfall interception, soil binding and water infiltration, thereby accelerating surface runoff, erosion and slope failure.
    • Road cutting, tunnelling, quarrying, hydropower construction and hill-slope urbanisation can disturb natural drainage and destabilise geologically fragile slopes.
    • Loss of wetlands, floodplain vegetation and mangroves also removes natural “sponge” and “bioshield” functions. The India State of Forest Report 2023 recorded national mangrove cover at 4,991 km², a decline of 7.43 km² from 2021.
  • Unplanned Urbanisation:
    • Rapid expansion of impervious surfaces, roads, concrete, buildings and paved areas, prevents infiltration and converts rainfall quickly into surface runoff.
    • During Cyclone Michaung in December 2023, intense rainfall combined with Chennai’s low-lying terrain, dense construction and drainage constraints to cause prolonged inundation and infrastructure disruption.
  • Atmospheric Aerosols and Land–Atmosphere Modification:
    • Black carbon, sulphates, dust and biomass-burning aerosols modify the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface and influence cloud formation.
    • Crop-residue burning, construction dust, industrial emissions and forest fires therefore influence regional weather through aerosol–cloud interaction, atmospheric dimming and snow-albedo feedback.
    • E.g., high aerosol concentrations may suppress light rainfall by producing numerous small cloud droplets; under moisture-rich conditions, however, delayed droplet formation can intensify convection and generate heavier rainfall once clouds mature.
What Initiatives has India Undertaken to Tackle Extreme Weather Risks?
  • Mission Mausam and High-Resolution Weather Forecasting:
    • The ₹2,000-crore Mission Mausam, approved for 2024–26, seeks to make India “weather-ready and climate-smart” through improved observations, cloud research, radars, satellites and numerical models.
    • The Bharat Forecasting System (BharatFS), operationalised in May 2025, provides forecasts at a resolution of 6 km, enabling more localised forecasts at block and panchayat levels.
  • Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Last-Mile Communication:
    • NDMA’s Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)-based SACHET portal and mobile application disseminate geo-targeted warnings from authorised agencies.
    • IMD has also moved from hazard-only forecasts to Impact-Based Forecasting, such as identifying possible disruption to roads, crops, power networks and settlements.
  • Cyclone Preparedness and Risk-Resilient Coastal Infrastructure:
    • Under the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project (NCRMP), India has strengthened cyclone shelters, evacuation roads, embankments and disaster-resilient communication networks in coastal states.
    • Doppler Weather Radars, ocean buoys, INSAT satellites and storm-surge models have improved cyclone-track and landfall forecasts.
  • Heat Action Plans and Heat-Health Preparedness:
    • NDMA and IMD have supported states and cities in preparing Heat Action Plans (HAPs) covering early warnings, hospital preparedness, altered working hours and public cooling measures.
    • IMD issues district-level heatwave and warm-night warnings, while the National Centre for Disease Control conducts heat-related illness surveillance under the National Programme on Climate Change and Human Health.
  • Flood Forecasting, Dam Safety and Urban Flood Mitigation:
    • The Central Water Commission (CWC) operates flood-forecasting stations and issues seven-day advisory flood forecasts using rainfall, river-gauge, reservoir and satellite data.
    • The Dam Safety Act, 2021 established institutional mechanisms for surveillance, inspection and emergency action planning for specified dams.
  • Himalayan Landslide, Avalanche and GLOF Risk Reduction:
    • The Centre sanctioned a ₹1,000-crore National Landslide Risk Mitigation Programme for northeastern and other high-risk states, supporting slope stabilisation, drainage correction and protective infrastructure.
    • A ₹150-crore National GLOF Risk Mitigation Programme covers Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, focusing on glacial-lake assessment, automated monitoring, early warning and community preparedness.
  • Climate-Resilient Agriculture and Weather-Based Farm Protection:
    • The National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) promotes drought-tolerant seeds, water harvesting, crop diversification, fodder banks, climate-resilient livestock shelters and village-level contingency planning.
    • ICAR has prepared District Agriculture Contingency Plans for more than 650 districts, prescribing alternative crops and farm operations under delayed monsoon, drought, floods and heat stress.
    • Technology platforms such as WINDS, YES-TECH and CROPIC use automatic weather stations, satellite data and geo-tagged crop photographs to improve weather data, yield estimation and claim settlement.
  • Nature-Based Solutions, Disaster Financing and Resilient Recovery:
    • The MISHTI programme targets mangrove restoration over approximately 540 km² across nine coastal states and three Union Territories, strengthening natural protection against storm surges, erosion and saline intrusion.
    • Amrit Sarovar, watershed development, wetland restoration and CAMPA-funded afforestation improve groundwater recharge, reduce runoff and stabilise slopes.
    • The 15th Finance Commission created separate National and State Disaster Risk Management Funds, expanding the framework beyond post-disaster relief to include preparedness, mitigation, capacity building and resilient reconstruction.
What Further Strategies can India Implement to Tackle Extreme Weather Events?
  • Create a Dynamic Multi-Hazard Digital Twin:
    • India should develop a continuously updated National Climate-Risk Digital Twin integrating IMD forecasts with satellite imagery, river flows, terrain, buildings, population and critical-infrastructure data.
    • It should model compound hazards, such as cyclone–storm surge–flood or heatwave–drought–wildfire, rather than assessing each event separately.
    • AI-based probabilistic forecasts could identify expected fatalities, infrastructure disruption and evacuation needs at ward and village levels.
  • Make Land-Use Planning Legally Risk-Sensitive:
    • States should prohibit or strictly regulate construction on floodplains, unstable slopes, coastal erosion zones and natural drainage corridors.
    • City master plans must incorporate climate-risk zoning, restore floodplains, reconnect lakes, create sponge neighbourhoods, bioswales, detention parks and permeable streets, and impose a storm-water fee based on impervious property area.
      • The Netherlands’ “Room for the River” model can be adapted to the Ganga, Brahmaputra, Mahanadi and urban river systems through controlled flood-storage zones.
    • Unsafe settlements can be shifted through managed retreat, land-pooling and Transferable Development Rights, rather than repeated post-disaster reconstruction.
  • Introduce Mandatory Climate Stress-Testing of Infrastructure:
    • Roads, bridges, dams, hospitals, schools, power systems and telecom networks should be designed using future climate projections, not historical averages.
    • BIS codes and public-procurement rules should require climate-resilience audits, redundancy and lifecycle risk assessment before project approval.
    • Infrastructure operators should disclose exposure to 1-in-100-year rainfall, extreme heat, storm surge and slope-failure scenarios.
  • Establish a Legally Enforceable Heat-Safe Economy:
    • Outdoor work should be regulated using the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), with mandatory work–rest cycles, shaded rest areas, hydration and paid heat breaks.
    • Building regulations should require cool roofs, shaded streets, passive ventilation and minimum thermal-comfort standards, especially in affordable housing and schools.
    • Electricity regulators should prepare heatwave demand-response plans, while cities should map vulnerable elderly people, informal workers and heat-trapping neighbourhoods.
  • Build Forecast-Based Anticipatory Social Protection:
    • Relief should be released before impact, once scientifically defined rainfall, temperature, river-level or wind-speed thresholds are crossed.
    • A national Anticipatory Action Protocol should clearly assign triggers, funding and responsibility to district administrations.
    • Pre-triggered assistance can include DBT cash transfers, foodgrain release, livestock relocation, advance crop advisories and temporary VB-G RAM G employment.
  • Develop a Layered Climate-Risk Financing Architecture:
    • India should reduce dependence on ad hoc relief through parametric insurance, catastrophe bonds, resilience bonds and contingency credit lines.
    • States could pool risks through a National Disaster Insurance Pool, while municipalities could issue resilience bonds for drainage, cooling and flood-protection projects.
    • The RBI Climate Risk Information System (RBI-CRIS) should support mandatory climate-risk assessment by banks, insurers and infrastructure lenders.
  • Climate-Proof Agriculture and Rural Livelihoods:
    • India should establish a dynamic crop-switching and livelihood-protection system based on seasonal forecasts, soil moisture and reservoir conditions.
    • Farmers should receive block-level recommendations to shift sowing dates, crop varieties or land use when drought, flood or heat thresholds are forecast.
    • Community seed banks, decentralised fodder reserves, solar-powered cold chains and mobile veterinary units can protect farm and livestock incomes during extremes.
Conclusion
  • India must bridge the gap between weather forecasting and economic governance by integrating risk assessment, loss accounting, and public finance. Rather than relying on reactive post-disaster relief, the next generation of climate governance must connect forecasting with exposure mapping, insurance, and proactive prevention. By pricing physical climate risk, India can direct investments toward resilient infrastructure, safeguard macroeconomic stability, and protect vulnerable populations from escalating climate shocks before disasters strike.